- Lorenzo Carver
The Rise and Fall of $MVIS on WallStreetBets & Reddit
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Before we start: Social chatter is down 25-30% across the board on Wednesday 4/28 than previous days, for all Reddit stock discussions, keep that in mind.
Number of subreddits analyzed: 26
Analysis time range - 4/27 - 4/28, 5pm-5pm EST. (IE 2 days)
Is MVIS a meme stock?
For the last three days yes. But historically, No. MicroVision has consistently been an underlying trend within the Reddit community for months (if not longer). MicroVision also has a 30k strong subreddit community over at /r/MVIS.
The long-term interest in MVIS's LiDAR and HoloLens capabilities has cemented themselves as a non-meme stock for many, and recent media coverage simply gets it wrong.
MVIS is trending 50% less on Wednesday 4/28 than Tuesday 4/27
4/27 Social Volume: ~18,000
4/28 Social Volume: ~9,435
Analysis: It's down quite a bit. That's not a bad thing, potentially 'paper hands' are exiting and the remaining people discussing MVIS are truly interested in the company's long term potential.
Keep in mind, with this type of exposure of a small-cap stock you get wild trading swings, but now social exposure is rounding out, MVIS may become more predictable leading up to a speculative buyout.
MVIS is still the highest percentile of conversations across Reddit
MVIS is almost 40% of total stock mentions across Reddit.
Analysis: Despite social volume being down for the day, this is the same percentile of mentions even at its peak. This shows the stock still has strong interest by the majority of participants, and would directionally sustain itself if more volume was present.
Sustained MVIS mentions are trending down
Mention volume, over time, in 1 hour increments
This is arguably the most telling of data points. Despite strong interest in MVIS, sustained interest is much lower than in previous days. The morning of 4/28 saw a small rally for MVIS surrounding the announcement of their LiDAR Sample
Chatter & Reddit Discussion Analysis
Hype Equity also provides Keyword and Discussion analytics, for MVIS we compared peoples buying and selling interests, as well as their interests in key events such as Q1 earnings, a potential buyout, and the LiDAR sample.
Calls and or Buying interest ratio increased from 56% to 59%
Puts and or Selling interest ratio decreased from 44% to 41%
Buyout interest decreased 47% compared to previous days
Earnings interest decreased 30% compared to previous days
LiDAR interest increased 73% compared to previous days, due to the announcement
Final thoughts: MVIS interest will continue to decrease until a buyout is potentially announced
There is a strong and sustainable interest among millions of Reddit Investors, with many now knowledgeable of MVIS's potential or have bought into their products.
We could see a future Social rally if an announcement comes, but after Earnings we believe it will decrease.